Soe Libya

Could we have seen the Libya revolt coming?

In a word, no.

The recent civil unrest across Northern Africa and many Middle Eastern countries came as a shock to many (not least the travel companies who spent a fortune pulling out their holiday makers from Tunisia and Egypt). While the warning signs of unrest were brewing, it still did not give rise to any suspicion for a full-scale revolt - after all, in these stricken countries the undercurrent of anger always pervades. Up until last month, it was business as usual, and even with the very best Galvan research in the world we couldn’t have predicted the scale of rebellion which was to follow.

You get the feeling that the Western World is cheering on civilians in these countries, and in a way, rightly so. We should never overlook or forget the loss of life (on either the demonstrators or state authority’s side) which is on the rise throughout these troubled countries, but there is admiration to be had for anyone who rises up against their oppressors in the face of bullet fire and tear canisters. And their governments seem to have reacted in the right way - leaders flee when they realise they’re not welcome and, for the most part, state authorities understand that opening fire on protests will have an extremely negative effect.

What the outcome to all this will be is also hard to predict, and indeed how far it will spread. One only hopes that nationals will succeed in their good fights, but not land themselves back at square one by appointing another dictator afterwards.

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